Education
BY ANGELA BONILLA
Conroe ISD is projected to see enrollment grow to 73,000 students by the 2030-31 school year before declining to 71,500 in 2035-36, according to a new Zonda Demographics study presented to the board of trustees at its March 17 meeting. CISD enrollment increased by 5,072 students Conroe ISD growth projections drop overall in the last four school years, although 150 fewer students entered in the 2025-26 school year, according to Zonda. This contrasts with a previous Population and Survey Analysts report that showed nearly steady growth expected from 2023-33, and an estimated 98,353 students in 2032-33.
A closer look
A long time coming
Looking ahead
Zonda officials said low birthrates are impacting enrollment numbers, with fewer births than previously projected. “We used district birthdate data, from the state health department ... we look at the ZIP codes that predominantly make up the district and look at the kindergarten enrollment as a capture rate,” said Rocky Gardiner, director of school district consulting. This projection comes despite potentially 22,000 new single-family lots through 2036, according to Zonda.
Officials said by comparing student ID numbers year-to-year, they were able to show that the number of students leaving the school district from kindergarten to 11th grade increased from 6,653 students leaving in the 2024-25 school year to 7,260 students for the 2025-26 school year. According to the data, the largest class of the current school year is 10th grade, with 5,584 students, and ninth grade has the second-most students, with 5,774 enrolled. The 2022 study projected that the district would see the most growth in the Conroe, Caney Creek and Grand Oaks feeder zones including San Jacinto Elementary School which would have an increase of over 1,700 students. San Jacinto Elementary is not, however, one of the schools which will have an increase, per the Zonda report. Schools that will see an increase in The Woodlands area include Deretchin Elemen- tary School, McCullough Junior High School and College Park High School.
Following the presentation, the district now has a clearer and an up-to-date understanding of how it is growing and changing, and it will be receiving quarterly updates from Zonda, Superintendent David Vinson told Community Impact . “In a district like Conroe ISD, where development remains strong with thousands of future lots, multifamily homes, and active subdivisions, having current data is critical,” Vinson said. “These insights allow us to be more strategic in planning for growth and address the needs for teachers and staff.” The Zonda study does project continued growth in the Conroe, Caney Creek and Grand Oaks feeder zones where schools are being built with 2023 bond funds.
Students entering and leaving
Transfers in The Zonda study shows the gap between K-11th grade students entering and leaving the district has narrowed. Transfers out
7,853 6,562 2023-24 school year 7,383 6,653 2024-25 school year 7,449 7,260 2025-26 school year
Conroe ISD 10-year student enrollment projections 100K
Zonda report
PASA study
98,353
67,761
75K 50K 25K 0
71,527
67,693
Numbers to know
+5.66%: change from 2021-22 to 2035-36
+45.15%: change from 2021-22 to 2032-33
1,200 houses under construction in CISD 1,700 new houses in active inventory
2021- 22
2022- 23
2023- 24
2024- 25
2025- 26
2026- 27
2027- 28
2028- 29
2029- 30
2030- 31
2031- 32
2032- 33
2033- 34
2034- 35
2035- 36
School years
20 future subdivisions expected in CISD
SOURCE: ZONDA DEMOGRAPHICS, CONROE ISD/COMMUNITY IMPACT
SOURCE: ZONDA DEMOGRAPHICS/COMMUNITY IMPACT
SOURCES: ZONDA DEMOGRAPHICS, CONROE ISD/COMMUNITY IMPACT
THE WOODLANDS 10491 Kuykendahl (281) 681-9110 FM 1488 3588 FM 1488 (936) 271-9606
RAYFORD SAWDUST 25044 IH 45 (281) 362-9131 GOSLING ROAD SPRING 24527 Gosling Rd (281) 516-9404
Powered by FlippingBook