TOP STORY
2023 ANNUAL COMMUNITY GUIDE
HOUSTON HOUSING MARKET STALLS The Greater Houston-area housing market slowed down rapidly in the second half of 2022 following rising interest rates, ination and low inventory.
November 2021
November 2022
Year-over-year change
Total property sales
Single-family home sales
Single-family months of inventory*
10,276
8,374
1.5 2.9
-30.2%
-30.4%
1.4 months
7,171
5,827
Total active listings
Single-family median sales price
*MONTHS OF INVENTORY ESTIMATES THE NUMBER OF MONTHS IT WOULD TAKE TO DEPLETE CURRENT ACTIVE INVENTORY BASED ON PRIOR 12 MONTHS OF SALES ACTIVITY. SOURCE: HOUSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSCOMMUNITY IMPACT
24,085 36,434
$310,275 $332,000
+51.3%
+7%
homes sold in the last 180 days of 2022 compared to the last quarter of 2021. “We are seeing incredibly low inventory, and houses are taking longer to go under contract in today’s current market,” she said. However, Rose Miller noted the bevy of new development projects—which include a mix of single-family housing, build-to-rent communities and additions to existing master-planned communities— coming to the area should help inventory demands. New developments Among the new neighborhoods coming to the Lake Houston area in 2023 are Harmony Cove and Townsen Landing, which will bring 412 and 350 single-family homes to Humble, respectively. In Porter, developers are continuing the build-out of The Highlands, a 4,000-home master-planned community. Additionally, a pair of build-to-rent communi- ties is planned for Atascocita, including the 92-unit Bluewater at Balmoral and the 162-unit Leva Living Atascocita. The Residences at Kingwood will also add 240 apartments and 49 townhomes to the area. Stephanie Wiggins, chief economic develop- ment o cer of Partnership Lake Houston, said she believes residential development in the Lake Hous- ton area helps spur local business growth. “The Lake Houston area is geographically appeas- ing as it o ers an easy commute to businesses in various areas of the Houston region,” Wiggins said. “Additionally, the cost of living in the Lake Houston area is relatively lower than some of our competing markets like Katy and Pearland.” Rose Miller said she believes local school districts, including Humble ISD, have likewise helped spur residential growth. Demographers at Population and Survey Analysts in a March 2020 report projected HISD’s jurisdiction will add more than 14,000 new housing units by 2029. To address the expected growth, voters within HISD’s boundaries approved a $775 million bond in May that included a new middle school and several expansions to existing schools and facilities. “The 2022 bond referendum was designed to accommodate growth over seven years,” said Jamie Mount, HISD chief communications o cer, noting the district has no plans for a future bond
referendum at this time. Mount said PASA o cials are scheduled to begin research for an updated HISD demographic study in August 2023, noting the district should receive the report during the 2023-24 school year. E ect on home prices While development progresses locally, fewer Houstonians could a ord the median home price of $349,500 as of the third quarter of 2022, according to the HAR. Just 41% of households earned the min- imum annual required income for that price point— compared to 53% one year earlier. “Homebuyers had to navigate an overheated market over the last year, but conditions have been cooling to prepandemic levels in recent months,” Wauhob said in the December market report. “We’ve seen home sales slow, prices level o and inven- tory rise. These are all indicators that we’re moving closer to more normal, prepandemic conditions.” While inventory has increased in the Lake Houston area, Rose Miller said home prices have remained high. According to Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center, home inventory in the Atascocita area has risen from a 0.7-month supply in November 2021 to a 1.7-month supply in Novem- ber 2022, meaning it would take an estimated 1.7 months to deplete the active inventory. Despite the increase in inventory, median home prices in Atascocita rose by 8.3% from $276,000 to $290,000 during that same time span, according to the Real Estate Research Center. In Kingwood, inventory rose from a 0.9-month supply to a two-month supply from November 2021 to November 2022, market data shows. During that same time frame, the median home price rose by nearly 20% from $246,000 to $295,000. However, Rose Miller noted the new development projects should help inventory demands. “If inventory increases, we would normally see prices get more competitive and lower, but nothing has been normal as of late,” Rose Miller said.
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8,374 units sold in 2021 to 5,827 units in 2022. “Because Houston housing was hyperenergized at the beginning of the year, concern arose when inter- est rates increased, and we began experiencing a consistent decline in sales volume,” Wauhob said in the market report. “Our market is battling the same forces as the rest of the country. … Fortunately, the Houston area has weathered the downturn better than many other markets.” Deborah Rose Miller, a Lake Houston-area Realtor with Rose Realty, said the trend was also re¥ected in the Lake Houston area, noting roughly 1,100 fewer LAKE HOUSTON HOUSING BREAKDOWN There were nearly 120,000 housing units in the seven ZIP codes that make up the Lake Houston area in 2021, according to the most recent American Community Survey data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Occupied units Unoccupied units Total vacancy rate
99 TOLL
77365
1314
77338
77339
77345
1960
77345
77346
59
LAKE HOUSTON
9,209 658 6.7%
77396
77044
N
77044
77346
15,712
1,069
22,385
960
6.4%
4.1%
77338
77365
16,315
869
12,145 1,296 9.6%
5.1%
77339
77396
17,063
1,497
19,482
1,178
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8.1%
5.7%
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAUCOMMUNITY IMPACT
19
LAKE HOUSTON HUMBLE KINGWOOD EDITION • JANUARY 2023
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