Stage 2 Triggered when: The total daily water demand equals or exceeds 70% of the available capacity for three consecutive days or 75% on a single day, or the city of Houston has initiated Stage 2. What it means: Water restrictions are mandatory. Water runoff and waste should be reduced. All told, the drought of 2022 has not been as bad as the drought of 2011, which is the benchmark by which other droughts are measured, Fowler said. In 2011, Brazoria and Galveston counties entered extreme drought May 17 and stayed there until Dec. 27. “It was not only a very long drought duration, but it was also very wide,” Fowler said, noting on Oct. 4, 2011, 88% of Texas was in Some officials have concerns about the future tendency for hot and dry conditions. Looking at precipitation trends over the past few decades, it is difficult to get a feel for the future. It seems as though Texas is going toward the extreme on extreme drought. Future concerns
Stage 1 Triggered when: The total daily water demand equals or exceeds 60% of the available capacity for three consecutive days or 65% on a single day, or the city of Houston has initiated Stage 1.
Stage 4
Stage 3 Triggered when: The total daily water demand equals or exceeds 80% of the available capacity for three consecutive days or 85% on a single day, or the city of Houston has initiated Stage 3.
Triggered when: The total daily water demand equals or exceeds 90% of the available capacity for three consecutive days or 95% on a single day, the city of Houston has initiated Stage 4, or a major water line breaks.
What it means: Water restrictions are voluntary. Outdoor watering should be limited between 9 a.m. and 7 p.m. twice per week.
What it means: Washing of vehicles is limited. The city ceases permitting private pools.
What it means: All nonessential water use is prohibited.
ending drought,” he said. It is possible that a single heavy rainfall could bring the area out of a drought, but that much rain all at once would likely result in other problems, such as flooding. The ideal way to get out of a drought is multi- ple weeks of above-average rainfall to not only meet norms, but also exceed them to make up for the months of lackluster precipitation, Fowler said. Matthew Perry, assistant district manager with Houston-based arbor- ist company Davey Tree, agreed. When soil is dry, it can handle only so much water at once, and the rest is not soaked into the ground and instead runs off into streets, he said. “What you need instead of heavy downpours … is really just a drizzle,” he said. “A slow soaking of the land.”
both ends: periods of extreme drought and separate stretches of extreme pre- cipitation, Fowler said. From a temperature standpoint, meteorologists have seen a con- sistent increase over the past few decades, particularly in overnight temperatures. It no longer gets nearly as cool overnight as it used to, which affects how quickly droughts taper off, Fowler said. Due to regional population growth, climate predictions and rain variabil- ity, the future drought in Texas may actually be a megadrought, which lasts at least two decades, Niel- sen-Gammon said. Megadrought is caused by natural climate cycles and human-induced climate change, which climatologists such as Nielsen-Gammon said will
cause higher average temperatures that increase evaporation rates and affect the intensity of rainfall. “Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. Rainfall variability also plays a role in determining the likelihood of megadrought. Texas has historically had unpredictable rainfall patterns, making it difficult to predict drought, Nielsen-Gammon said. “Texas is quite variable from ... year to year,” he said. “We’ve had some decades with 50% more rainfall than other decades, for example.” Shawn Arrajj and Grace Dickens contributed to this report.
For more information, visit communityimpact.com .
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PEARLAND - FRIENDSWOOD EDITION • SEPTEMBER 2022
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