Education
BY WESLEY GARDNER
Student population growth in Humble ISD is expected to level o in the coming decade, according to a January report by demographic rm Population and Survey Analysts. Since 2013, the fast-growth district has added nearly 10,000 students, bringing its current student population to roughly 48,600. However, PASA Demographic Consultant Justin Silhavy said growth has slowed in the last few years. While Silhavy said a decrease in the number of projected new housing units and a rise in charter schools in the area have led to lower enrollment projections, he noted some areas in the southern portion of the district could still see higher rates of growth. HISD enrollment projected to plateau
What they’re saying
A closer look
Silhavy said roughly 9,400 new housing units are projected to be added to HISD’s boundaries over the next decade, including: • Townsen Landing: 560 units • Harmony Cove: 412 units • Balmoral: 517 units • The Groves: 272 units PASA President Stacey Tepera said the growth in these areas could a ect some campus’ capacity. According to the report, enrollment projections in the moderate-growth scenario would put the following campuses over capacity by the 2033- 34 school year: • Centennial Elementary: 137% • Groves Elementary: 115% • Humble Elementary: 121% • Lakeland Elementary: 120% However, Tepera noted several renovation and expansion projects included in the $775 million bond package will help prevent the district’s secondary schools from seeing similar overcrowding in the next decade. While the district doesn’t have any current plans to rezone campus boundaries, Fagen said the report will allow o cials to address potential capacity issues moving forward. Fagen said o cials are in the process of identifying underutilized facilities to space out o erings like dual- language and bilingual programs across the district.
“Long term, we see some slight overcrowding at ... Humble and Lakeland [elementaries]. ... All of those can
be accommodated by either rezoning, moving programs or ... [classroom] additions.” STACEY TEPERA, POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS PRESIDENT
“We would be looking at underutilized buildings for dual-language and bilingual programs that we don’t currently
have in Kingwood. … Those students travel to Humble [Elementary], which overcrowds that school.” ELIZABETH FAGEN, HUMBLE ISD SUPERINTENDENT
Humble ISD projected growth
Humble ISD’s student enrollment has increased by 27.02% from the 2013-14 school year to the 2023-24 school year. Low-growth scenario projection • 2033-34 enrollment: 45,210 • Change from 2023-24: -6.91% Moderate-growth scenario projection • 2033-34 enrollment: 47,922 • Change from 2023-24: -1.32% High-growth scenario projection • 2033-34 enrollment: 50,221 • Change from 2023-24: +3.41%
“We hate the word rezoning, but there are some opportunities to shift a little
bit here and there. There are also some opportunities to [move] programs [like dual- language] to really maximize the space that’s available.” ROBERT SITTON, HUMBLE ISD TRUSTEE
SOURCE: POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS COMMUNITY IMPACT
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