Enrollment explosion From the cover
What’s changing?
The full story
The top factors spurring student enrollment growth for NCISD include new housing options coming to the area and a continually rising local birth rate, according to PASA’s report. “Plans for new housing construction fluctuate and impact the specific years when those new stu- dents will arrive, but where they arrive has been projected in the past three PASA studies,” PASA President Stacey Tepera said via email Aug. 9. The construction of new housing in the New Caney area is expected to add at least 500-800 students per year over the next decade, according to PASA’s report. Single-family housing makes up a majority, 82.8%, of the students expected to be added to NCISD. Four major single-family neighborhoods that are already being built within NCISD’s boundaries —The Highlands, Tavola West, Maple Heights and Porters Mill South—are projected to add 3,500 homes total by the 2028-29 school year, according to the report. By the 2034-35 school year, 4,200 are expected to be added to NCISD’s boundaries, per the report. This growth could come from further construction in The Highlands as well as undevel- oped land, including a 1,600-acre tract owned by Guniganti Family Property Holdings in the north- west portion of the district and several tracts of land owned by Aurous Development located south of Gene Campbell Boulevard in Porter.
Multiple projects under NCISD’s May 2023 bond were added to address student growth. Two new elementary schools, two new middle schools and a high school expansion funded by the bond are slated to add almost 5,000 seats to total student capacity across the district, said Scott Powers, NCISD’s executive director of public relations. Meanwhile, New Caney and Porter elementary schools are projected to be the first schools to exceed 120% of their capacities is predicted to be by the 2027-28 school year, according to PASA’s report. However, Calvert noted the report does not account for some of the schools planned under the 2023 bond.
For the 2024-25 school year, NCISD enrolled 19,420 students, according to TEA data. By 2034-35, PASA officials predict enrollment to reach between 23,900 and 30,600 students, representing 23%-58% growth. With average daily attendance being used to calculate state funding for school districts, more students means more money for the district, Calvert said. However, it also means more staff will need to be hired. “There’s definitely a proportional relationship there. … It’s nice to get the additional revenue, [but] at the same time, there’s going to be some additional expenses coming in,” Calvert said.
New Caney ISD enrollment Historical enrollment
Highlands Elementary • Cost: $44M • Capacity added: 1,000 seats • Status: Opened Aug. 6 Elementary School No. 13 • Cost: $50M • Capacity added: 1,000 seats • Status: Design underway Highlands Middle School • Cost: $108M • Capacity added: 1,100 seats • Status: Construction began June 18 Middle School No. 6 • Cost: $108M • Capacity added: 1,100 seats • Status: Planning in progress West Fork High School, Phase II expansion • Cost: $76M • Capacity added : 750 seats • Status: Completed summer 2025 SOURCES: TEXAS EDUCATION AGENCY, POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS, NEW CANEY ISD/ COMMUNITY IMPACT NCISD voters approved a $695M bond in 2023, which funded projects to account for enrollment growth, including:
Mid-level enrollment projection
35K
27,826
28K
19,420
21K
14K
+43%
7K
0
Housing developments in NCISD
Units already occupied Projected new housing occupancies 2024-34 Projected new housing occupancies beyond 2034
School year
Porter Mills South 485
Projected NCISD campus enrollments exceeding max capacities
Enrollment at 100%-119.9% of capacity Enrollment exceeding 120% of capacity Enrollment under 100% of capacity
Maple Heights 309
917
608
25
Tavola West
20
614
1,400
786
15
Guniganti Family Property Holdings tract
1,315 1,315
10
2,630
5
The Highlands
708
2,380
0
1,672
Aurous Development's tracts
2,036
1,600
3,636
School year
SOURCE: POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS/COMMUNITY IMPACT
14
COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM
Powered by FlippingBook