KEEPING UP WITH WATER LEVELS The drought of 2008-15 took a major toll on Lake Travis. In 2011, nearly 50% of available water in Lake Travis was sent downstream to irrigators, according to the Central Texas Water Coalition. Lake Travis is considered to be at full capacity at 681 feet mean sea level.
making it di cult to predict when drought may occur, Nielsen-Gammon said. All the pieces are there, but whether they fall into place is dependent upon natural variability in the climate cycle. “Whether or not we have a drought in any given year depends upon the rainfall in Texas,” he said. “Texas is quite variable from season to season, and year to year. We’ve had some decades with 50% more rainfall than other decades, for example.” The unpredictability of drought has prompted activists such as Jo Karr Tedder, the president of the Central Texas Water Coalition, to call for more conservation e orts from entities such as the Lower Colorado River Authority, which manages water in the Highland Lakes area. The Greater Austin area population grew 33.7% between 2010-20, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The region is expected to grow from roughly 2.2 million residents in 2020 to 4.5 million in 2050. This massive increase will strain the Highland Lakes system, including Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan, that provides water to the area, Tedder said. “It seems to be all coming together at a time when our water demands for the region are going to sig- ni cantly expand,” Tedder said. One particular area of concern is the decline of water owing into the Highland Lakes. These declining in ows are caused by a multitude of fac- tors, including the unregulated sale and use of water upstream, she said. Though the state water plan has been in place since the mid-1900s, 25 years ago it started using a system that splits Texas into 16 regions, each of which develops its own plan that is then compiled into the state water plan. The Highland Lakes sys- tem is part of Region K, which stretches from the top of the Highland Lakes to Matagorda Bay. “The biggest aw is that the [state water plan] doesn’t explicitly take into account climate change, at least not at the state level,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “But individual regional planning organizations are free to consider climate change.” Impact on lake economy Dive World Austin is an inland dive center in Northwest Austin that o ers basic and advanced training to become a diver. Residents from all over Austin often come here to get certi ed before they go on trips to other places, owner Seth Wallace said. Several certi cations require time in open water.
Lake Travis water levels from 2008-22 in April
700
Capacity line: 681 feet
681.90
678.93
668.11
673.59
650
660.81
657.87
639.95
626.88
600
0
Monitoring water capacity
The Lower Colorado River Authority tracks the available water in Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan. Although water in ow into the lakes is down in 2022, it is not at the same level as in 2011.
2011
2022
38% capacity in Lakes Travis and Buchanan
77% capacity in Lakes Travis and Buchanan
COURTESY TEXAS PARKS AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT
GRACE DICKENS COMMUNITY IMPACT NEWSPAPER
SOURCES: GO LAKE TRAVIS, LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES COMMUNITY IMPACT NEWSPAPER
Megadrought is caused by natural climate cycles and human-induced climate change, which clima- tologists such as Nielsen-Gammon said will cause higher average temperatures that increase evapora- tion rates and a ect the intensity of rainfall. “Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. “Low [lake] levels will probably happen again sometime, but it depends on both the weather and on water use. There’s no tell- ing when it will happen again.” Rainfall variability also plays a large role in deter- mining the likelihood of megadrought. Texas has historically had unpredictable rainfall patterns,
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“Be conscious that water doesn’t just appear from the tap,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “It’s stored, extracted and treated. Sometimes there’s plenty of water, and sometimes there isn’t. Being able to reduce water use is an important capability to have.” Drought in Central Texas Due to regional population growth, climate pre- dictions and rain variability, the future drought in Texas may actually be a megadrought, which lasts at least two decades, Nielsen-Gammon said.
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