From the cover
Enrollment in flux as home sales slow
Falling home sales Home sales within RRISD fell by about 50% in recent years. This means student enrollment numbers could drop, which would result in less funding for RRISD.
The conditions
Current situation
Housing market activity has consequences for the district financially, via the route of enrollment, school administrators said. Enrollment numbers, along with the district’s average daily attendance, determine how much state funding RRISD receives. With less families buying homes within the district, enrollment growth could stall. Facilities, transportation and programming costs have all grown beyond the $55 per-student increase to the basic allotment approved through House Bill 2, Round Rock ISD Superintendent Hafedh Azaiez said. Without enrollment growth or an increase in per-student funding, he said the district has less and less purchasing power. While HB 2 will provide an $8.4 billion boost to public education statewide, Azaiez said require- ments around how the new money is spent is limiting for the district. “That’s why for a long time we’ve been asking the legislators, ‘Please increase the basic allot- ment,’ because that’s really what we use,” Azaiez said. “It’s the foundation of what it costs to educate a child.” The legislation requires Texas public schools to use new monies in a specific way, largely to
Despite a large number of homes being built within Round Rock ISD, the school district’s future enrollment is uncertain, demographers said. A report capturing data from the last quarter of 2024 shows home sales in RRISD fell by roughly half over the past three years. Based on this data, as well as housing starts, closings and home prices, Zonda predicted three enrollment scenarios for RRISD— ranging from a decrease of 1,061 students to an increase of about 1,730 students—by the 2034-35 school year. The high-growth scenario still falls 2,263 students short from the district’s peak enrollment of 50,953 in the 2019-20 school year. The difference, Zonda President Bob Templeton said, is dependent on the local housing market, as well as other factors. One cause, he said, is that people are choosing to stay in their homes longer. “These homeowners are staying in their homes past the kids graduating,” Templeton said. “They don’t move until the grandkids come into the picture.” Historically, younger families have purchased existing homes because they tend to be more affordable. However, the report shows there is little difference between the price of new and existing homes within RRISD. “More and more first-time homebuyers are looking for new homes because they’re a little more affordable,” Templeton said.
5,777
2023 2022 2024 2020 2019 2021
5,607
5,781
4,199
3,288
2,940
increase compensation for nonadministrator employees. Throughout the budgetary process, Azaiez and other district administrators stated that this directed use of funds limits their ability to fund other programs as needed. Sen. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, who spon- sored HB 2 in the Senate, told Community Impact that the targeted funding will help ensure a larger share goes directly to the classroom. Several area districts, including RRISD, approved smaller pay increases for staff who didn’t qualify for HB 2 raises, citing the bill as a reason they weren’t able to provide larger increases. SOURCES: ROUND ROCK ISD, ZONDA EDUCATION/COMMUNITY IMPACT Homes sold 0 1K 5K 3K 7K 2K 6K 4K
Home prices The average price for new builds and existing homes were similar in 2024, data shows.
A closer look
Azaiez said the district is experiencing a slow- down of development overall, due to higher inter- est rates and a reluctance to sell land to developers. The district is also one of many across the state experiencing lower birth rates, he said. At the same time, undeveloped land within RRISD’s borders is dwindling, Templeton said. He estimated that within five years the district will be built out. “They’re kind of landlocked,” Templeton said. “They still have a little bit of land on the east side, but for the most part, their developable land mass is virtually at the end.” Over time, and if the trend of homeowners choosing to remain in their houses persists, this could lead to a decline in enrollment, he said. Tanya Kerr, a Realtor and former RRISD campus assistant principal, said the housing market is correcting itself, with interest rates and prices in better proportion. She said this is due to a larger number of homes available and fewer buyers in the market.
Average new home price
Average existing home price
$700K
Enrollment projections Demographers at Zonda Education have created three enrollment scenarios for RRISD. Historical enrollment Low Mid High
$600K
$500K
$400K
$300K
0
55K
50K
SOURCE: ZONDA EDUCATION/COMMUNITY IMPACT
Higher interest rates have lowered the purchasing power of buyers, she said. Conversely, homeowners who were able to buy at a lower interest rate are remaining in their homes, leading to less movement in the housing market. “I do think families are trying to make a move, but the desire has to be stronger than the fear of the interest rate and the economy,” Kerr said.
45K
0
SOURCES: ROUND ROCK ISD, ZONDA EDUCATION/COMMUNITY IMPACT
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COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM
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