Georgetown Edition | March 2026

From the cover

Schools stand still

Two-minute impact

Georgetown ISD projected enrollment The number of students expected over the next 10 years declined from August to November. Projected enrollment (November) Projected enrollment (August) Actual enrollment

19,900

20K

14,061

Padavil’s decision to delay opening Ames Elementary and MS 5 comes after the district received new demographic data in November that projected slower enrollment growth over the next decade. An August demographic report projected the district will have 19,900 students by the 2034- 35 school year. By the time the district received updated projections in November, that number had shrunk by 2,500 students. District ocials say the change is due to a slowed housing market and high interest rates. Delaying the new school openings will allow GISD to avoid a budget decit for scal year 2026-27 and limit budget cuts. “If we open, it’s almost irresponsible because that money has to come from somewhere,” school board President James Scherer said. “You can either take it out of fund balance and go into a decit … or you have to make a decision that actually impacts students.” Additionally, GISD is considering calling a tax-rate election this fall to fund teacher raises.

15K

17,364

10K

NOTE: THE NOVEMBER PROJECTIONS REFLECT THE DISTRICT'S MIDGROWTH ENROLLMENT SCENARIO. SOURCE: ZONDA EDUCATIONCOMMUNITY IMPACT

Funding loss from decreased projections

Because Texas districts are funded by attendance, lower student projections means lower funding projections.

2026- 27

2027- 28

2028- 29

2029- 30

2030- 31

2031- 32

2032- 33

2033- 34

2034- 35

School year

Dierence in projected enrollment Hypothetical funding loss

-278 -485 -760 -1,101

-1,349 -1,591 -1,939 -2,235 -2,536

$1.73M $3.01M $4.72M $6.84M $8.38M $9.89M $12.05M $13.89M $15.76M

SOURCE: GEORGETOWN ISDCOMMUNITY IMPACT

The context

The impact

The number of new homes built in Georgetown has declined in recent years. Georgetown single-family building permits

While Georgetown has been a fast-growing community for many years, the area has recently seen a decline in the number of new homes built and sold, a spokesperson for Zonda, the district’s demographer, said in an email. In the Austin metro area, the number of new homes sold has declined 25.4% since last year, according to Zonda information. Homebuyers have been more cautious due to higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, and increased costs for insurance, taxes and home maintenance, the Zonda spokesperson said. Because of new homes having high interest rates, Scherer said he believes fewer young fam- ilies are moving out of their starter homes, while older couples are less likely to downsize after their children graduate. The district’s enrollment has also been impacted by expanded alternative education options, including charter schools, homeschooling and neighboring districts, according to Zonda infor- mation. This fall, the state’s $1 billion education savings accounts program will begin awarding selected families public dollars for private school tuition. “We have to behave as if we are a choice for

If GISD opened Ames Elementary and Middle School No. 5 in August, the district would have faced a $1.75 million budget shortfall, including $6.3 million in new sta salaries. Although construction was funded by the 2024 bond, the number of students enrolled under the updated projections would not cover the cost of running the new campuses, Padavil said. Texas public school districts are funded based on the average number of students who attend school each day. Community member Suzie Kovach, a former Texas teacher who serves on GISD’s Community Action Committee, said she believes delaying the opening of the cam- puses is best for GISD. Parent Ami Mendoza said it is more responsible for the district to avoid incurring further debt by not opening the schools in August. While GISD halted its districtwide rezoning process, the board approved new attendance zones to relieve overcrowding at Wolf Ranch next school year. District ocials said the delayed campus openings will not aect class sizes.

2022

2,585

2023

1,520

2024

2,166

2025

1,493

2026

Projection: 1,428

SOURCE: CITY OF GEORGETOWN ISDCOMMUNITY IMPACT

families,” Padavil said. “We’re going to have to continue to ensure … that if your child comes to school here, they’re going to get a high-quality education.”

COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM