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LOCAL MARKET DATA Median home prices rose rapidly from 2020-22 but began to taper o by May of this year. The inventory of homes continues to grow in each submarket as homes take longer to sell. San Marcos Buda Kyle MEDIAN SALES PRICE
DAYS ON MARKET
$600K $450K $300K $150K $0
150
Percent change from May 2022-23 -1.60%
Percent change from May 2022-23
100
+62.07% -42.02% +48.65%
50
-24.56% -16.23%
0
May 2020 May 2021
May 2022 May 2023
May 2020 May 2021
May 2022 May 2023
ACTIVE LISTINGS
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
250 200 150 100 50 0
4 3 2 1 0
Percent change from May 2022-23
Percent change from May 2022-23
+117.53% +223.52% +124%
+26.66% +314.29% +145.45%
May 2020 May 2021
May 2022 May 2023
May 2020 May 2021
May 2022 May 2023
SOURCES: TEXAS A&M REAL ESTATE RESEARCH CENTER, FOUR RIVERS ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS COMMUNITY IMPACT
“Historically, if it takes three months to sell your house, that’s not bad, but compared to a year ago when there were no homes on the mar- ket—even with a little demand—they were snapping up those houses really quick,” said Bill Chittenden, an associ- ate professor of nance at Texas State University. “More folks are wanting to sell their homes. But they’re on the market longer because it’s not as a ordable as it was just a couple years ago, so it’s going to be harder for them
priced out of the real estate market, said Stephanie Ryan, the president of the Four Rivers Association of Real- tors, which focuses on the real estate market in Caldwell, Comal, Guada- lupe and Hays counties. From May 2020-May 2022, the median home price across Hays County rose from $265,900 to $470,000, or nearly 77%. The most recent data from the Realtors association shows it fell in May 2023 to $400,000. “It’s pricing people out of the mar- ket,” Ryan said. “[If someone] could a ord a more expensive home because your interest rate was so low, now it’s very di cult for people to do that.” Even with Federal Housing Author- ity loans as an option for rst-time homebuyers, covering the lower down
payment and closing costs on a home can be a steep price tag, Ryan said. The increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve compounds the price of the monthly total payment on a home, meaning someone who could budget for a mortgage pay- ment on a $369,000 home two years ago—the most current median home price in San Marcos—might not be able to a ord it now as the monthly cost is signi cantly higher, Chitten- den said. The most recent mortgage rates from Freddie Mac show 6.71% on a 30-year xed-rate mortgage. In May 2020, interest rates hovered at or below 3%. “Say the mortgage is $350,000. … That di erence between the [principal and interest] payment today and the
[principle and interest] payment two years ago is a $750 di erence,” he said. Chris Kerr, a loan o cer with Leg- acy Mutual Mortgage, said he is seeing fewer rst-time homebuyers. “Most of my buyers are move-up and move-in, so there are people mov- ing up at home, or they’re moving in from out of the area, so they’re com- ing from higher-priced areas buying homes here,” Kerr said. “I got a guy in California right now; I got a guy from Montana, a guy from Corpus [Christi]. … It’s not the rst-time buyer or the lower-income, lower price point.” Market beginning to balance While the months of inventory g- ure is extending in local markets, real estate experts cautioned the market
to sell their homes.” A ordability wanes
The rise in home prices, combined with recent hikes in interest rates, cre- ated an environment in which a large segment of the population is being
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