Education
BY BROOKE SJOBERG
RRISD enrollment linked to housing
Falling home sales Home sales in RRISD have fallen by about 50% in recent years, demographers said.
The conditions
A closer look
Looking ahead
Other factors that could cause a drop in enrollment, Templeton said, include growing participation in charter schools, online education platforms, homeschooling and the upcoming education savings account program, which is set to begin with the 2026-27 school year. Going into the 2025-26 school year, administrators confirmed that the district had reduced positions by attrition, with enrollment projected to be nearly flat. Azaiez said the district budgeted for the upcoming school year along the lines of the middle-tier, and could absorb up to a 500-student decline in enrollment without making additional budget or program changes.
Azaiez said the district is experiencing a slow- down of development overall, due to higher inter- est rates and a reluctance to sell land to developers. The district is also part of many across the state experiencing lower birth rates, he said. At the same time, undeveloped land within RRISD’s borders is dwindling, Templeton said. He estimated that within five years the district will be built out. “They’re kind of landlocked,” Templeton said. “They still have a little bit of land on the east side, but for the most part, their developable land mass is virtually at the end.” Over time, and if the trend of homeowners choosing to remain in their houses persists, this could lead to a decline in enrollment, he said. Tanya Kerr, a Realtor and former RRISD campus assistant principal, said the housing market is correcting itself, with interest rates and prices in better proportion. She said this is due to a larger number of homes
Housing market activity has consequences for the district financially, via the route of enroll- ment, school administrators said. Without enrollment growth or an increase in per-student state funding, Round Rock ISD Superintendent Hafedh Azaiez said the district has less and less purchasing power. Facilities, transportation and programming costs have all grown beyond the $55 per-student increase to the basic allotment approved through House Bill 2. The school funding bill will provide an $8.4 billion boost to public education statewide, but Azaiez said requirements around how the new money is spent is limiting for the district. “That’s why for a long time we’ve been asking the legislators, please increase the basic allot- ment, because that’s really what we use,” Azaiez said. “It’s the foundation of what it costs to educate a child.”
5,937 5,903 5,850 5,954
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022 2024
Despite a significant number of homes being built within Round Rock ISD, the school district’s future enrollment is uncertain, demographers say. A report capturing data from the last quarter of 2024 shows home sales in RRISD fell by roughly half over the past three years. Using this data alongside housing starts, closings and home prices, Zonda forecasted high, mid and low-enrollment scenarios for the district. These show RRISD potentially decreasing from 46,695 students in the 2024-25 school year to 45,893, growing to 47,781 in the mid- level projection, or rising to 48,690 total students in the 2034-35 school year. The difference, Zonda President Bob Templeton said, is dependent on the local housing market, as well as other factors, such as people choosing to live in their homes for longer.
Enrollment projections Demographers at Zonda Education have created three enrollment scenarios for RRISD. Historical enrollment Low Mid High
6,269
5,777
5,607
55K
5,781
4,199
3,288
50K
2,940
0 1K
2K
3K
4K
5K
6K
7K
45K
Homes sold
0
available and fewer buyers in the market. Higher interest rates have lowered the purchas- ing power of buyers, while homeowners who got lower interest rates are remaining in their homes, she said.
SOURCES: ROUND ROCK ISD, ZONDA EDUCATION/COMMUNITY IMPACT
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