KEEPINGUP WITHWATER LEVELS The drought of 2008-15 took a major toll on Lake Travis. In 2011, nearly 50% of available water in Lake Travis was sent downstream to irrigators, according to the Central Texas Water Coalition. Lake Travis is considered to be at full capacity at 681 feet mean sea level.
telling when it will happen again.” Rainfall variability also plays a large role in deter- mining the likelihood of a megadrought. Texas has historically had unpredictable rainfall patterns, making it dicult to predict when a drought may occur, Nielsen-Gammon said. All the pieces are there, but whether they fall into place is dependent upon natural variability in the climate cycle. “Whether or not we have a drought in any given year depends upon the rainfall in Texas,” he said. “Texas is quite variable from season to season, and year to year. We’ve had some decades with 50% more rainfall than other decades, for example.” The unpredictability of a drought has prompted activists such as Jo Karr Tedder, the president of the Central Texas Water Coalition, to call for more conservation eorts from entities such as the Lower Colorado River Authority, which manages water in the Highland Lakes. Most of the water for the cities of Austin, Cedar Park, Leander and the surrounding areas is provided through contracts with the LCRA. The Greater Austin area population grew 33.7% between 2010-20, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The region is expected to grow from roughly 2.2 million residents in 2020 to 4.5 million in 2050. This increase will strain the Highland Lakes system that provides water to the area, including Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan, Tedder said. “You have shifting weather patterns, you have declining in¡ows, you’ve got population growth and not enough focus on conservation,” Tedder said. “It seems to be all coming together at a time when our water demands for the region are going to signi- cantly expand.” One particular area of concern is the decline of water ¡owing into the Highland Lakes. These declining in¡ows are caused by a multitude of fac- tors, including the unregulated sale and use of water upstream, she said. Although the state water plan has been in place since the mid-1900s, 25 years ago it started using a system that splits Texas into 16 regions, each of which develops its own plan that is then compiled into the state water plan. The Highland Lakes sys- tem is part of Region K, which stretches from the top of the Highland Lakes to Matagorda Bay. “The biggest ¡aw is that the [state water plan] doesn’t explicitly take into account climate change, at least not at the state level,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “But individual regional planning organizations are free to consider climate change.” Impact on lake economy When the drought of the early 2010s brought Lake Travis to historic lows, business owner Pete Clark said the hardest part was staying a¡oat. “We’re talking about something I don’t think any- body saw coming,” Clark said. “And there’s nothing you can do about it except battle through it one day at a time.” Clark said as a result of the drought he lost ve businesses: Carlos n’ Charlies, Cafe Blue, Sandy Creek Marina, U Float Em and North Shore Marina. He laid o nearly 350 employees and lost roughly 70% in revenue. Lake Travis is a signicant economic engine, gen- erating $207.2 million in revenue for state and local
Lake Travis water levels from 2008-22 in March
700
Capacity line: 681 feet
680.85
679.82
680.85
668.71
670.65
650
665.03
634.46 627.69
600
0
Monitoringwater capacity
The Lower Colorado River Authority tracks the available water in Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan. Although water inow into the lakes is down in 2022, it is not at the same level as in 2011.
2011
2022
38% capacity in Lakes Travis and Buchanan
77% capacity in Lakes Travis and Buchanan
COURTESY TEXAS PARKS AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT
GRACE DICKENSCOMMUNITY IMPACT NEWSPAPER
SOURCES: GO LAKE TRAVIS, LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES COMMUNITY IMPACT NEWSPAPER
Climatologist says futuremegadrought could harmLake Travis area bymid-21st century
BY GRACE DICKENS
To mitigate eects of long-term drought on Cen- tral Texas, climatologists and activists are calling for Texans to be vigilant of water usage and plan ahead. “Be conscious that water doesn’t just appear from the tap,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “It’s stored, extracted and treated. Sometimes there’s plenty of water, and sometimes there isn’t. Being able to reduce water use is an important capability to have.” Drought in Central Texas Due to regional population growth, climate pre- dictions and rain variability, the future drought in Texas may actually be a megadrought, which lasts at least two decades, Nielsen-Gammon said. Megadrought is caused by natural climate cycles and human-induced climate change, which clima- tologists such as Nielsen-Gammon said will cause higher average temperatures that increase evapora- tion rates and aect the intensity of rainfall. “Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. “Low [lake] levels will probably happen again sometime, but it depends on both the weather and on water use. There’s no
Western Travis County faced abnormally dry to severe drought conditions throughout March and into early April, with several “Red Flag” days indicating high risk of re issued by the National Weather Service. While these conditions are cause for concern, state of Texas Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon predicts long-termdrought, known asmegadrought, could be in Texas’ future. This type of drought is dif- ferent from the drought currently occurring in Tra- vis County as well as the drought of 2008-15. By the latter half of the 21st century, worsening long-term drought conditions in Texas could put strain on Lake Travis as a natural, recreational and nancial resource for the Lake Travis-Westlake area and beyond, said Nielsen-Gammon and Jo Karr Ted- der, president of the Central Texas Water Coalition. Under these conditions, drought is the new nor- mal, Nielsen-Gammon said. Restricted water use and lower lake levels become permanent xtures in the life of Central Texans, and everyday activities such as lawn watering become a privilege.
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COMMUNITY IMPACT NEWSPAPER • COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM
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