Education
BY CHLOE YOUNG
LISD demographic report projects reduced enrollment growth
Diving in deeper
In LISD, the population of school-aged chil- dren ages 5-17 has declined while the preschool population of students ages 0-5 has declined even more significantly. The district’s largest cohort of students at the high school level will be replaced by smaller incoming kindergarten classes over the next few years, resulting in a loss of around 300-350 students each year. While birth rates have increased in recent years, kindergarten class sizes have still declined due to more students pursuing charter, private and virtual schools, Tepera said. The district has seen a 71% increase in students transferring to these options since 2017 with six new charter schools in the area.
Enrollment growth in Leander ISD is projected to continue slowing over the next decade, according to a recent demographic update by Population and Survey Analysts, or PASA. The decelerated growth comes as older grade levels are being replaced by smaller incoming kindergarten classes, and more students are attending charter schools and other educational options, PASA President Stacey Tepera said at an Oct. 24 board of trustees meeting. Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, LISD experienced significant, steady and high enrollment growth that dipped in 2020 and 2021, Tepera said. Enrollment began growing again in 2022 and 2023 but at a slower rate. Until this year, PASA
was uncertain if the district’s slowed growth would be temporary or develop into a larger trend, she said. “Now, I think it’s pretty clear that we can say there are many factors impacting this deceleration of growth in Leander ISD,” Tepera said. With 42,537 students, LISD has around 500 less students than it was projected to have this fall. The district’s enrollment dropped by 56 students since the 2023-24 school year when its enrollment was 42,593. The 2024 demographic report projects the district will have 44,474 students by 2034, which is around 4,800 students less than its projections last year for 2033.
The impact
Student enrollment over time LISD is projected to gain around 2,000 students over the next 10 years based on current data.
Due to housing trends, enrollment is expected to continue growing in the north, stabilize in the central and decline in the southern portions of the district, Tepera said. Tarvin Elementary, Danielson and Stiles middle schools, and Rouse and Glenn high schools are expected to see the most growth. Meanwhile, Camacho Elementary, Canyon Ridge Middle School and Vandegrift High School are expected to lose the most students.
Historical enrollment
Accelerated projected enrollment
Projected enrollment
Reduced projected enrollment
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 0
SOURCE: POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS/COMMUNITY IMPACT
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