Education
BY RYAN REYNOLDS
Cy-Fair ISD is expected to see a 1.1% enrollment dip from 118,057 to 116,757 students by 2034, according to a report demographics firm Population and Survey Analysts presented at an April 10 board meeting. PASA officials based their projections on job growth, socioeconomic trends, housing construction, and charter and private school plans. Although CFISD is expected to see a slight drop in enrollment, PASA President Stacey Tepera said the district is entering a new phase in its natural demographic cycle known as stabilization. Tepera said the trend is driven by several factors, including limited land for new housing, more students choosing alternative education options and fewer babies being born. “There’s not one simple answer to say what is happening to enrollment in this district,” Tepera said. “It’s very complicated, and there are lots of factors that go into it.” Enrollment to decline in CFISD
A closer look
Single-family developments
1 Bridgeland 2 Avalon at Cypress 3 Grand Mason 4 Dunham Pointe 5 Marvida
6 Bridge Creek 7 Elyson 8 Wisteria 9 Richfield Ranch 10 Crossing at Cypress Lakes
PASA projections show most of CFISD’s growth is focused in the western part of the district near the Grand Parkway, while student populations in many other areas continue to decline. Around 33,120 new housing units are expected to be built over the next decade in neighborhoods such as Bridgeland, Marvida, Avalon at Cypress, Dunham Pointe and Grand Mason, among others. Still, PASA demographer Angela Fritz said the district is about 91% built out as of 2025, which limits space for further housing development and future enrollment growth. “Many of these declining forces have been happening for years. They were just masked by this incredible … growth from new housing. And now that is tapering off, we’re beginning to see the impact of those declining forces more and more,” Tepera said.
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Cy-Fair ISD
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SOURCE: POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS/COMMUNITY IMPACT
the specific details of the final policy. PASA reports the district has seen a 59% increase in students transferring to charter schools since 2017 compared to a 44% statewide increase. About 8% of students living in Cy-Fair ISD in 2023-24 did not attend CFISD schools.
Also of note
Projected Cy-Fair housing growth More than 32,000 new housing units are planned for Cy-Fair over the next 10 years.
About 7,000 students have transferred out of CFISD to pursue alternative education options such as private, charter and homeschooling, Tepera said. That number is growing by 400- 500 students annually and could increase by roughly 1,800 over the next five years, with eight new charter campuses expected to open in and around the district. Tepera said the impact of pending voucher legislation on CFISD enrollment will depend on
Multifamily units 17,187 Single-family units 13,812 Build-to-rent units 1,193
• 5,233 attended charter schools. • 3,064 attended private schools. • 944 attended other ISDs. • 725 attended virtual academies.
SOURCE: POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS/COMMUNITY IMPACT
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CYPRESS EDITION
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